NHL Value Model· 2025-26
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Tampa Bay Lightning

Roster
24
Cap committed
$92.6M
Cap space
$2.9M
available
Surplus
+$18.9M
10 expiring
Next season space
$19.6M
Roster

Sorted by value delta

Most underpaid first. Re-sign signal blends delta, age, and years left to flag who to extend, monitor, or let walk.

Darren Raddysh
Darren Raddysh
D · age 30 · Top-Four D · $1.0M · 0y left
+$7.3M
vs $8.3M
Priority Re-sign
Corey Perry
Corey Perry
R · age 41 · Middle-Six F · $2.0M · 0y left
+$3.8M
vs $5.8M
Priority Re-sign
Nikita Kucherov
Nikita Kucherov
R · age 33 · Elite · $9.5M · 1y left
+$3.5M
vs $13.0M
Priority Re-sign
J.J. Moser
J.J. Moser
D · age 26 · Two-Way / Shutdown · $2.8M · 2y left
+$3.1M
vs $5.8M
Locked In (Value)
Pontus Holmberg
Pontus Holmberg
R · age 27 · Bottom-Six F · $1.6M · 1y left
+$2.1M
vs $3.7M
Priority Re-sign
Gage Goncalves
Gage Goncalves
C · age 25 · Middle-Six F · $1.2M · 1y left
+$1.8M
vs $3.0M
Priority Re-sign
Declan Carlile
Declan Carlile
D · age 26 · Bottom-Pair D · $0.8M · 0y left
+$1.8M
vs $2.5M
Priority Re-sign
Dominic James
Dominic James
C · age 24 · Middle-Six F · $0.9M · 1y left
+$1.6M
vs $2.5M
Extension Now
Charle-Edouard D'Astous
Charle-Edouard D'Astous
D · age 28 · Two-Way / Shutdown · $2.8M · 2y left
+$1.5M
vs $4.3M
Locked In (Value)
Brandon Hagel
Brandon Hagel
L · age 28 · Top-Line F · $6.5M · 6y left
+$1.4M
vs $7.9M
Locked In (Value)
Zemgus Girgensons
Zemgus Girgensons
C · age 32 · Bottom-Six F · $0.8M · 1y left
+$1.2M
vs $2.1M
Priority Re-sign
Scott Sabourin
Scott Sabourin
R · age 34 · Bottom-Six F · $0.8M · 0y left
+$1.1M
vs $1.9M
Priority Re-sign
Max Crozier
Max Crozier
D · age 26 · Bottom-Pair D · $2.8M · 2y left
+$0.8M
vs $3.5M
Fair Deal
Yanni Gourde
Yanni Gourde
C · age 34 · Bottom-Six F · $2.3M · 5y left
+$0.5M
vs $2.8M
Fair Deal
Nick Paul
Nick Paul
L · age 31 · Bottom-Six F · $3.1M · 3y left
+$0.4M
vs $3.5M
Fair Deal
Oliver Bjorkstrand
Oliver Bjorkstrand
R · age 31 · Middle-Six F · $5.4M · 0y left
+$0.3M
vs $5.7M
Fair Deal
Emil Lilleberg
Emil Lilleberg
D · age 25 · Bottom-Pair D · $2.8M · 2y left
+$0.3M
vs $3.0M
Fair Deal
Erik Cernak
Erik Cernak
D · age 29 · Bottom-Pair D · $5.2M · 5y left
−$1.2M
vs $4.0M
Monitor
Jake Guentzel
Jake Guentzel
C · age 32 · Elite · $9.0M · 5y left
−$1.6M
vs $7.4M
Star Contract
Ryan McDonagh
Ryan McDonagh
D · age 37 · Two-Way / Shutdown · $6.8M · 0y left
−$1.7M
vs $5.0M
Extension Signed
Anthony Cirelli
Anthony Cirelli
C · age 29 · Middle-Six F · $6.3M · 5y left
−$2.4M
vs $3.9M
Monitor
Brayden Point
Brayden Point
C · age 30 · Top-Line F · $9.5M · 4y left
−$3.3M
vs $6.2M
Monitor
Victor Hedman
Victor Hedman
D · age 35 · Two-Way / Shutdown · $8.0M · 3y left
−$3.6M
vs $4.4M
Buyout Candidate
Conor Geekie
Conor Geekie
C · age 22 · Bottom-Six F · $1.0M · 3y left
vs
Fair Deal
NHL VALUE MODEL

Predictions reflect what the market currently pays for similar production.

Entry-level deals show large positive deltas by CBA design. UFA and unsigned players have no delta. Stats are projected to 82-game pace.

Data: NHL API + PuckPediaModel: Comps-based weighted AAVLast refresh: Jun 5, 2026, 7:06 AM