Leaderboards
The biggest market mistakes
Players whose model-predicted fair cap hit diverges the most from their actual deal. Sort by absolute dollar gap or percentage gap.
Surplus
Underpaid · top 30
Player is producing well above their cap hit by the model's measure.
01
Ivan Demidov
MTL · R · age 20 · Top-Line F
$0.9M
cap hit
+$7.5M
796%
02
Lane Hutson
MTL · D · age 22 · Top-Four D
$0.9M
cap hit
+$7.4M
780%
03
Macklin Celebrini
SJS · C · age 20 · Elite
$1.0M
cap hit
+$7.5M
774%
04
Darren Raddysh
TBL · D · age 30 · Top-Four D
$1.0M
cap hit
+$7.3M
750%
05
Matthew Schaefer
NYI · D · age 19 · Top-Four D
$1.0M
cap hit
+$7.2M
736%
06
Jackson LaCombe
ANA · D · age 25 · Top-Four D
$0.9M
cap hit
+$6.5M
705%
07
Jimmy Snuggerud
STL · R · age 22 · Top-Line F
$0.9M
cap hit
+$6.2M
654%
08
Cutter Gauthier
ANA · L · age 22 · Elite
$0.9M
cap hit
+$6.1M
642%
09
Matvei Michkov
PHI · R · age 21 · Top-Line F
$0.9M
cap hit
+$6.0M
636%
10
Will Smith
SJS · C · age 21 · Top-Line F
$0.9M
cap hit
+$5.6M
588%
11
Jamie Benn
DAL · L · age 37 · Top-Line F
$1.0M
cap hit
+$5.8M
579%
12
Leo Carlsson
ANA · C · age 21 · Top-Line F
$0.9M
cap hit
+$5.4M
571%
13
Ryan Leonard
WSH · R · age 21 · Top-Line F
$0.9M
cap hit
+$5.3M
561%
14
Brandt Clarke
LAK · D · age 23 · Two-Way / Shutdown
$0.9M
cap hit
+$4.8M
560%
15
Adam Fantilli
CBJ · C · age 22 · Top-Line F
$0.9M
cap hit
+$5.3M
560%
16
Simon Edvinsson
DET · D · age 23 · Two-Way / Shutdown
$0.9M
cap hit
+$4.9M
553%
17
Marcus Johansson
MIN · L · age 36 · Middle-Six F
$0.8M
cap hit
+$4.4M
550%
18
Jackson Blake
CAR · R · age 23 · Top-Line F
$0.9M
cap hit
+$4.7M
524%
19
Connor Bedard
CHI · C · age 21 · Top-Line F
$0.9M
cap hit
+$4.9M
519%
20
William Eklund
SJS · L · age 24 · Top-Line F
$0.9M
cap hit
+$4.4M
515%
21
Beckett Sennecke
ANA · R · age 20 · Top-Line F
$0.9M
cap hit
+$4.9M
515%
22
Yan Kuznetsov
CGY · D · age 24 · Two-Way / Shutdown
$0.8M
cap hit
+$4.2M
511%
23
Josh Doan
BUF · R · age 24 · Top-Line F
$0.9M
cap hit
+$4.6M
499%
24
Artyom Levshunov
CHI · D · age 21 · Two-Way / Shutdown
$1.0M
cap hit
+$4.8M
488%
25
Alexander Nikishin
CAR · D · age 25 · Two-Way / Shutdown
$0.9M
cap hit
+$4.5M
482%
26
Logan Cooley
UTA · C · age 22 · Top-Line F
$0.9M
cap hit
+$4.6M
479%
27
Gabe Perreault
NYR · R · age 21 · Middle-Six F
$0.9M
cap hit
+$4.3M
460%
28
Michael Carcone
UTA · L · age 30 · Middle-Six F
$0.8M
cap hit
+$3.5M
447%
29
Matvei Gridin
CGY · R · age 20 · Middle-Six F
$0.9M
cap hit
+$4.0M
430%
30
Frank Nazar
CHI · C · age 22 · Middle-Six F
$0.9M
cap hit
+$4.1M
427%
Liability
Overpaid · top 30
Cap hit exceeds what the model expects from the player's production.
01
Timo Meier
NJD · R · age 30 · Middle-Six F
$8.8M
cap hit
−$7.2M
-82%
02
Kevin Hayes
PIT · R · age 34 · Bottom-Six F
$7.1M
cap hit
−$4.7M
-65%
03
Jesperi Kotkaniemi
CAR · C · age 26 · Bottom-Six F
$4.8M
cap hit
−$3.0M
-63%
04
Jack McBain
UTA · C · age 26 · Bottom-Six F
$4.3M
cap hit
−$2.7M
-63%
05
Tyler Seguin
DAL · C · age 34 · Middle-Six F
$9.8M
cap hit
−$6.0M
-61%
06
Auston Matthews
TOR · C · age 29 · Top-Line F
$13.3M
cap hit
−$8.0M
-61%
07
Josh Anderson
MTL · R · age 32 · Middle-Six F
$5.5M
cap hit
−$3.2M
-58%
08
Sean Couturier
PHI · C · age 33 · Middle-Six F
$7.8M
cap hit
−$4.5M
-58%
09
Ryan Graves
PIT · D · age 31 · Bottom-Pair D
$4.5M
cap hit
−$2.6M
-58%
10
Phillip Danault
MTL · C · age 33 · Bottom-Six F
$5.5M
cap hit
−$3.1M
-56%
11
Brendan Gallagher
MTL · R · age 34 · Bottom-Six F
$6.5M
cap hit
−$3.7M
-56%
12
Ondrej Palat
NYI · L · age 35 · Bottom-Six F
$6.0M
cap hit
−$3.3M
-55%
13
Jonathan Huberdeau
CGY · L · age 33 · Middle-Six F
$10.5M
cap hit
−$5.8M
-55%
14
Pavel Buchnevich
STL · L · age 31 · Middle-Six F
$8.0M
cap hit
−$4.2M
-53%
15
Nicolas Hague
NSH · D · age 27 · Two-Way / Shutdown
$5.5M
cap hit
−$2.9M
-52%
16
Brayden Schenn
NYI · C · age 35 · Middle-Six F
$6.5M
cap hit
−$3.4M
-52%
17
Tanner Jeannot
BOS · L · age 29 · Bottom-Six F
$3.4M
cap hit
−$1.8M
-52%
18
Owen Tippett
PHI · R · age 27 · Middle-Six F
$6.2M
cap hit
−$3.2M
-52%
19
Jacob Trouba
ANA · D · age 32 · Two-Way / Shutdown
$8.0M
cap hit
−$4.1M
-52%
20
Mason McTavish
ANA · C · age 23 · Middle-Six F
$7.0M
cap hit
−$3.6M
-51%
21
Jordan Greenway
BUF · L · age 29 · Bottom-Six F
$4.0M
cap hit
−$2.0M
-51%
22
Trent Frederic
EDM · C · age 28 · Bottom-Six F
$3.9M
cap hit
−$1.9M
-49%
23
Drew Doughty
LAK · D · age 36 · Two-Way / Shutdown
$11.0M
cap hit
−$5.3M
-49%
24
Darnell Nurse
EDM · D · age 31 · Two-Way / Shutdown
$9.3M
cap hit
−$4.4M
-48%
25
Matty Beniers
SEA · C · age 24 · Middle-Six F
$7.1M
cap hit
−$3.3M
-47%
26
Yegor Sharangovich
CGY · C · age 28 · Middle-Six F
$5.8M
cap hit
−$2.7M
-46%
27
J.T. Compher
DET · L · age 31 · Bottom-Six F
$5.1M
cap hit
−$2.3M
-46%
28
Gabriel Landeskog
COL · L · age 34 · Middle-Six F
$7.0M
cap hit
−$3.1M
-45%
29
Victor Hedman
TBL · D · age 35 · Two-Way / Shutdown
$8.0M
cap hit
−$3.6M
-45%
30
Joel Farabee
CGY · L · age 26 · Middle-Six F
$5.0M
cap hit
−$2.2M
-44%